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Real Life Questions

September 3, 2014 | Weekly Commentary

QUESTION: I heard over the weekend September is typically a bad month for the U.S. stock market? Should I get out because of this?

ANSWER: With Labor Day upon us, the market is about to enter what is historically its most treacherous month. According to Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P has averaged a decline of 1.1% in all Septembers going back to 1928, with gains in the month less than half the time. Perhaps, this one will be less scary. In years when the market was up in the first eight months, as it is now by 8%, September averaged a 0.2% gain, with positive returns half the time. Recent history: 4 of the last 5 Septembers have experienced positive performance. Thus, our recommendation is to continue to follow the guideline in the “Heat Map” above and avoid paying too much attention to the calendar.

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