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Update On Washington

January 9, 2017 | Weekly Commentary

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. Let’s identify and track the 4 initiatives upon which the U.S. stock market is speculating will be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy.  We consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the “Heat Map.”

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  HEARINGS AND CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL (OR NOT) ON TRUMP APPOINTEES FORMS A LITMUS TEST FOR FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.