The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration. What will happen next? It’s still to be determined!
The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy. We consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.
Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:
- Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
- Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
- Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. ON ITS SECOND ATTEMPT, THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PASSED LEGISLATION TO REVISE IT. THE SENATE HAS FAILED TO BRING THE BILL AND HAS FAILED TO PASS THE HOUSE’S VERSION OR ANY OTHER. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD THIS GOAL IS 0%.
- Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 40%
As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.
We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.