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Update – Washington

March 28, 2017 | Weekly Commentary

The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election.  We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.  What will happen next? TBD

The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy.  I consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.

Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:

  1. Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
  2. Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years.  NO PROGRESS RECENTLY.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
  3. Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FAILED TO PASS LEGISLATION TO REVISE IT. NO TIMETABLE HAS BEEN PRESENTED TO RE-INTRODUCE THIS LEGISLATION SO THE CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD THIS GOAL IS REDUCED FROM 15% TO 0%.
  4. Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED AND ALL BUT A FEW TRUMP NOMINEES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE.  CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 20%

As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.

We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.

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