Markets moved sharply back and forth last week as investors digested a mix of economic data, technology concerns, and rising geopolitical tensions. Much of the recent selloff has been attributed to the spike in oil prices, with some commentators comparing today’s environment to the 1970s energy crisis. We believe those comparisons are misplaced. The global economy today is fundamentally different—shaped by the internet, artificial intelligence, and decades of productivity-enhancing technological advances—and the United States is far more energy independent than it was 50 years ago. In our view, the larger driver of market volatility is the surge in uncertainty across several fronts, particularly the escalation of geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. When uncertainty rises, investors often shift toward safer assets, although even U.S. Treasuries came under pressure last week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 22 basis points to close at 4.15%. We expect market volatility to remain elevated if uncertainty persists.

U.S. & Global Economy

• Investors focused on the inflationary implications of the sharp rise in oil prices tied to escalating Middle East tensions, which helped drive a selloff in U.S. Treasuries rather than the typical flight-to-quality rally. As energy prices climbed amid concerns about potential disruptions to global supply, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury yields moved higher across much of the curve, with the 10-year yield ending the week near 4.1%. At the same time, economic data added another layer of uncertainty. The February employment report showed an unexpected decline of roughly 92,000 jobs, although much of the weakness appeared tied to temporary factors such as weather and strike disruptions rather than a broad deterioration in hiring. Taken together, rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals left markets balancing renewed inflation concerns against signs that parts of the economy may be cooling.

Policy and Politics

• Geopolitical risk moved sharply back to the forefront during the week ending March 6, adding volatility to markets and pushing crude prices higher as investors priced in the possibility of supply disruptions tied to escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Reports of strikes targeting Iranian leadership and related facilities, along with retaliatory threats from Tehran, increased fears that the conflict could broaden and draw in additional regional actors, raising concerns about potential disruptions to energy infrastructure and global oil supply. A constructive outcome would involve diplomatic progress that reduces the risk of further escalation and stabilizes energy. With diplomatic progress limited and the Russia-Ukraine conflict continuing to pressure global energy markets, investors remained highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, contributing to a higher risk premium in oil and increased market volatility.

Markets are entering the week facing a complex mix of geopolitical tension and key economic catalysts. The primary focus remains the U.S.–Israel strikes on Iranian targets and the potential ripple effects across global energy markets, which have pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns about supply disruptions. While oil shocks have historically been associated with economic slowdowns, today’s environment is meaningfully different. The United States is now largely energy independent, and recent history suggests economies can absorb energy spikes without triggering recessions. In fact, the two most recent major oil surges—including the spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—ultimately faded without derailing economic growth.

Beyond geopolitics, investors will also be watching several key corporate and economic developments in the week ahead. Earnings from companies such as Oracle, Adobe, and Dollar General should provide insight into enterprise technology spending and the health of the U.S. consumer. Markets will also parse incoming economic data for signals on growth and inflation. In periods like this, when geopolitical headlines and macro data can move markets quickly, maintaining a long-term perspective and staying diversified remain critical for navigating volatility. Your team at Valley National Financial Advisors is here to help you navigate these developments and answer any questions you may have.

Economic Numbers to Watch This Week

• U.S. Existing Home Sales for February 2026, prior 3.91M
• U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY for February 2026, prior 2.40%
• U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) YoY for February 2026, prior 2.50%
• U.S. Federal Budget Balance for February 2026, prior -$22.0B
• U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment for week ending March 7, 2026, prior 213,000
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index YoY for January 2026, prior 3.00%
• U.S. PCE Price Index YoY for January 2026, prior 2.90%
• U.S. Real GDP QoQ for 4^th Quarter 2025, prior 1.40%
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March 2026, prior 76.9

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