Equity markets finished the week on a mixed but generally positive note, with the Dow and S&P 500 roughly flat for the week while the Nasdaq led the way, rising about 1.5% over the week. A flurry of reports signaled a potential breakthrough in U.S.–Iran relations, with both sides reportedly returning to the table in Pakistan. Overall, the Q1 earnings season has come in strong so far, with generally healthy corporate outlooks. Within Big Tech, results were mixed, reflecting a growing “software vs. semiconductors” divide: Texas Instruments and Lam Research exceeded expectations. At the same time, IBM and ServiceNow faced pressure from slight revenue misses and deal delays tied to Middle East tensions. Industrials remained a bright spot, as CSX and United Rentals delivered solid results, with URI raising full-year guidance after posting record first-quarter revenue and earnings. On the macro front, ADP’s weekly job additions index moved higher, suggesting the labor market may be holding up better than many had anticipated. Meanwhile, despite the extension of the Iran ceasefire, oil prices remained stubbornly elevated around the $90 range, though there is cautious optimism that prices could ease if Middle East tensions continue to cool. Last week, treasury yields moved modestly higher, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury increasing 6 basis points to close the week at 4.32%.

U.S. & Global Economy

• This week’s economic data generally came in stronger than expected, pointing to a resilient U.S. economy. March retail sales rose 1.7%, with ex-autos up 1.9%, both ahead of forecasts and a notable acceleration from the prior month, while business inventories and pending home sales also exceeded expectations. On the labor front, initial jobless claims ticked slightly higher to 214K, but remain at relatively low levels, and the recent upward trend in ADP private payroll data suggests hiring demand is holding firm. Business activity improved as well, with both services and manufacturing PMIs moving back into expansion territory and beating estimates. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment edged higher in its final April reading. Taken together, and reinforced by commentary from companies this earnings season, the data suggests the U.S. consumer continues to hold up well despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.

Policy and Politics

• U.S. policy this week has shifted into a high-stakes waiting game following President Trump’s April 21 decision to grant a short-term “3 to 5 day” ceasefire extension to Iran, a move intended to give Tehran time to finalize a 10-point peace proposal while the U.S. naval blockade remains in place. Domestically, the Federal Reserve transition cleared a major hurdle on April 24, as the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, effectively allowing the Senate to proceed with the confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh. On the trade front, the administration is working to cement a 10% global baseline tariff to replace older emergency frameworks, even as new data shows effective rates on Chinese imports have climbed to a record 31.6%, prompting a high-level Indian delegation to arrive in Washington this week to negotiate a strategic exemption.

Investors will be closely watching a packed week ahead, with a heavy slate of earnings from major companies. These include Visa, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, Mastercard, and Caterpillar, which are set to provide further clarity on corporate health and forward guidance. The Federal Reserve meeting will also be in focus, where no change in interest rates is expected, but investors will be listening closely for any signals on the economic outlook and future policy direction. On the data front, the first estimate of Q1 GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, will be key releases that could shape market expectations. At the same time, markets will remain sensitive to movements in oil prices and any updates on Iran peace talks, as geopolitical developments continue to influence overall sentiment. Your team at Valley National Financial Advisors is here to help you navigate these developments and answer any questions as conditions evolve.

Economic Numbers to Watch This Week

• U.S. Consumer Confidence for April 2026, prior 91.8
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders for March 2026, prior -1.4%
• U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, prior no change
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for April 25, 2026, prior 214,000
• U.S. Employment Cost Index for Q1 2026, prior 0.7
• U.S. GDP for Q1 2026, prior 0.5%
• U.S. Personal Income for March 2026, prior -0.1%
• U.S. Personal Spending for March 2026, prior 0.5%
• U.S. PCE Price Index for March 2026, prior 0.4%
• U.S. PCE Price Index (YoY), prior 2.8%
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index for March 2026, prior 0.4%
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY), prior 3.0%
• U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for February 2026, prior -0.1%

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