U.S. equities were mixed during the week ending June 26 as investors weighed resilient economic data against profit-taking in AI and semiconductor stocks. The Dow gained 0.6%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.0% and the Nasdaq declined 4.6%. Economic data remained generally supportive, with initial jobless claims falling to 215,000 and Q1 GDP revised higher to 2.1%, although higher PCE inflation and weaker durable goods orders highlighted that growth remains uneven. The Fed Funds rate remained unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, maintaining a cautious stance, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.4%. Geopolitically, the U.S.–Iran agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped calm energy markets, though the situation remains fragile. In another positive development, all 32 of the nation’s largest banks successfully passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test, reinforcing the strength and resilience of the U.S. banking system. Meanwhile, Congress passed a landmark housing bill aimed at addressing the nation’s housing affordability crisis by increasing the supply of homes, a move that could provide longer-term support for the housing market. Lastly, year-to-date returns on all three major market indexes remain well into positive territory, and we are only halfway through 2026.

U.S. & Global Economy

• Economic activity during the week ending June 26 continued to point to a stable but uneven global expansion. In the United States, first-quarter GDP was revised higher to a 2.1% annualized pace, with business investment and consumer activity remaining broadly supportive. On the inflation front, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, came in elevated but in line with expectations, reinforcing the central bank’s patient, data-dependent approach to rate policy. Overseas, conditions were mixed, with Europe still showing sluggish growth and China continuing to lean on policy support to stabilize domestic demand. The situation in the Middle East grew considerably more troubling as the week came to a close, with Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and its continued interference with shipping traffic raising serious doubts about whether a durable diplomatic resolution is achievable anytime soon. While geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation remain key concerns, the overall global backdrop continues to support moderate growth, resilient corporate activity, and a constructive long-term view.

Policy and Politics

• The geopolitical backdrop improved during the week ending June 26, although risks remain elevated. The U.S.–Iran ceasefire and MOU have reduced the immediate threat of a broader regional conflict, and oil prices have moved sharply lower from their recent highs. Brent crude finished the week near the low-$70s, while U.S. crude also eased, easing concerns that energy costs could reignite inflation or further complicate Federal Reserve policy. Some commercial shipping has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic remains below normal as operators continue to assess security risks. This is a positive development for markets, consumers, and inflation expectations, but the agreement remains fragile. We are encouraged by the progress, yet investors should recognize that the region has a long history of setbacks, and energy markets could quickly react to any renewed disruption or breakdown in negotiations.

Markets have another important week ahead as investors look for confirmation that the economy remains on a solid footing as the second half of the year begins. The key focus will be Thursday’s June jobs report, including nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth. Investors will also watch Tuesday’s JOLTS report and Wednesday’s ADP Employment Report for additional signs of whether labor demand is cooling or simply normalizing. This will be especially important given recent layoff announcements from several large technology companies, which have raised questions about whether weakness is isolated to specific industries or becoming more broad-based. Nike’s quarterly results will also be closely watched for clues on consumer spending, inventory levels, and the company’s progress after several difficult quarters. Meanwhile, lower oil prices and reduced tensions in the Middle East have helped improve market sentiment. Overall, investors will be watching to see whether employment, consumer activity, and corporate earnings can continue to support the market’s positive momentum. Please contact the team at Valley National Financial Advisors with any market-related questions.

Economic Numbers to Watch This Week

• U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for June 2026, prior 93.1
• U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2026, prior –
• U.S. ADP National Employment Report for June 2026, prior 122K
• U.S. Manufacturing PMI for June 2026, prior 55.1
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2026, prior 54.0
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for Week Ended June 27, 2026, prior 215K
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Employment Report) for June 2026, prior 172K
• U.S. Unemployment Rate for June 2026, prior 4.3%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) for June 2026, prior 0.3%
• U.S. Factory Orders for May 2026, prior 4.8%

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